Understanding the Climate Crisis

Emissions

• Past emissions: IPCC AR5, https://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf page 12
• Coal, Oil and gas emissions: BP Statistical Review 2014
• Split of coal, oil and gas emissions into pre-2030 and post-2030:  own calculation, based on the simplified assumption of continued extraction at 2013 levels, according to BP Statistical Review 2014
• Unconventional oil (“tar sands”) and gas: Rogner et al. 2012 as cited in IPCC 2014
• Emissions to CO2 levels to temperature rise:
  • Edenhofer O., et al. (2014) Technical Summary. (Table TS. 1, page 54) In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. We take the upper end of IPCC projections into account, following the precautionary principle.
  • IPCC (2014) Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (Table 2.2, page 64) IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.
  • Carbon Brief (2014) Six years worth of current emissions would blow the carbon budget for 1.5 degrees. Carbon Brief November 13, 2014.
  • WMO (2012) The amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a new record high in 2012, continuing an upward and accelerating trend which is driving climate change and will shape the future of our planet for hundreds and thousands of years. Press Release Number 980.

Impacts

• Sudan drought: https://www.audubonmagazine.org/articles/climate/darfur-first-climate-war
• Heat wave in Europe: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1631069107003770
• Ice-free Arctic Ocean: https://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/12/13/the-end-of-the-arctic-ocean-could-be-ice-free-by-2015.html
• Coral reefs: https://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n2/full/nclimate1674.html
• Greenland Meltdown: IPCC, WGI AR5 SPM, 5.8, 13.4-5, https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf page 29. We indicate the cited 1-4° range here on its middle point: 2.5° temperature rise.
• Amazon Die-off: https://iopscience.iop.org/1755-1315/6/6/062017/pdf/ees9_6_062017.pdf and https://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/news/events/amazon/harris.pdf
• Permafrost melt: IPCC AR5, https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_LONGERREPORT.pdf page 31: 180-920 GtCO2 release for RCP 8.5 over 21st century.
• Extinctions of species: IPCC AR4
• Methane clathrates: https://geosci.uchicago.edu/~archer/reprints/archer.2005.clathrates.pdf